Saturday evening Russia will take on Sweden in a crucial qualification match for next summer’s European championship. Russia has since the defeat to Austria sacked Fabio Capello and replaced him with CSKA Moscow’s Leonid Slutsky who is currently double jobbing. Both Russia and Sweden are trailing the invincible Austrian side, but the second place is enough for a direct spot to next summer’s tournament. With four games remaining Russia is almost forced to beat the Swedes if they want to keep the hope of the second place alive. To give you the best possible preview for the match, we have teamed up with Swedish football expert Johan Nilsson from Svenskafans.com.
Russia:
Russia’s home game on Saturday against Sweden sees them return to their unsatisfactory European Championship qualifying campaign. Having started out with an Italian in charge, Leonid Slutsky has replaced Fabio Capello in an attempt to resurrect their chances of playing in France next summer. Despite leading them to a World Cup, their first in 12 years, Capello became unpopular with the natives and most have shown delight in his departure.
Slutsky is current manager of CSKA Moscow and is arguably the most reputable Russian manager around. Having been manager of CSKA since 2009, the Russian has guided the club to two Russian Cups as well as two Premier League titles alongside two runner-up positions. At 44, Slutsky is considered young within the business but his successes so far show his ability and potential within management. His appointment as Russian manager was received well but with a contract until 2016, he is under immense pressure to guide Russia to France next year if he is to have a chance of being offered an extension.
His first task is to pick up a victory against Sweden to greater Russia’s chances of qualification. Even though the Swedes are unbeaten, a victory for Russia will close the gap between the two nations to only one point. Suddenly, from feeling very far from qualification, Russia will give themselves a massive boost towards qualification.
Nonetheless, the Russians have proved themselves to be remarkably inconsistent. They come into the game with a record of two wins, two draws and two defeats with one of those draws being against the Swedes back in October 2014. Along with this, in their last five European Championship qualifying games, the Russians have won just the one. Slutsky will know he will have to hit the ground running and he can’t afford to be dropping any points.
Formation and playing style:
Slutsky has followed his predecessor in his squad choice with a lot of the members carrying a vast amount of experience at either club level or international. With the youngest player being Alexander Kokorin at 24, the average age of the squad is 30. As Slutsky is using a similar squad to that of Capello, it will be intriguing to see if the players play differently as well as Slutsky being able to get more out of the team.
The surprise inclusion in the squad is 34 full back Oleg Kuzmin. The Rubin Kazan full back is entering his sixth season with the club and has already played under Leonid Slutsky during his time at Moscow FC. With competition from Kombarov, you expect Kuzmin has a greater chance of making his debut in the following European Championship qualifying game against Liechtenstein.
Aleksandr Erokhin could also potentially make his first appearance for Russia on Saturday. After coming through the ranks at Lokomotiv Moscow before featuring for Krasnodar during the 2011-2012 seasons, he has settled down at Ural. His fine performances have been rewarded with a call up to the national squad and could feature against the Swedish.
Russia come into the game will a full bill of players with no players currently suffering from either an injury or suspension. In recent days though, keeper Igor Akinfeev has been carrying a knock making him a 50/50 for the game on Saturday.
With it being his debut, there has been a lot of talk about how Russia will set up on Saturday. Most would look to draw conclusions that Slutsky might set up his Russian side the same way he does with his CSKA Moscow side. The problem with that though lies within the differences of the two sides. CSKA Moscow are strongest up front with the pace of Ahmed Musa and Seydou Doumbia. In comparison, the Russian team lacks this with Artem Dyzuba and Fedor Smolov very much being target men.
Team news:
Igor Akinfeev is very much expected to start on Saturday, given he is fit enough. The keeper has been a stalwart in the Russian side for many years and is known continentally for his ability. He has, however, been injured and he missed the first few practices for Slutsky’s new national team. Luckily for Russia he is expected to start. In front of him, you can expect a club partnership in Vasiliy Berezutski paired with either his twin Alexei or Sergei Ignashevich. On the flanks, positions are very much available but I would assume Kombarov on the right with Dinamo Moscow wing back Yuri Zhirkhov on the opposite side.
The midfield is very difficult to gauge and you consider how much being CSKA Moscow manager influences his choice in terms of picking his own players. There might be a Dzagoev - Glushakov partnership in midfield with Shatov and Cherysev playing out wide in the midfield. Up top, expect to see Alexander Kokorin play off Artem Dyzuba.
Probable line-up:
Akinfeev - Kombarov, V. Berezutski, Ignashevich, Zhirkhov - Glushakov, Dzagoev - Shatov, Kokorin, Cheryshev - Dzyuba
Match prediction:
It will be most intriguing to see how Slutsky sets up and how much of an influence he can be to this squad of players. Being a Russian himself, it will bring a better connection between the fans and the team which may prove vital taking into consideration how much importance this game carries. I wouldn’t put it past the Russians to win but the Swedish are not unbeaten without a reason.
Slutsky job is the save a dying campaign and failing to qualify for next year’s European Championship might prove detrimental towards their chances of success at home in 2018. With very much a short term plan in mind to save it for the Russians, Slutsky will be looking to draw out the best of an ageing squad before the reigns get pasted over to a younger squad.
Sweden:
To say that this is a crucial four days for Swedish football wouldn’t be an exaggeration. On Saturday, Sweden face off with Russia in Moscow and only four days later the group leaders, Austria, awaits the Swedish team in Stockholm. It’s two games that most likely will decide whether Sweden plays in the 2016 European Championships or not. And with the World Cup draw in fresh memory and Zlatan Ibrahimovic retirement on the horizon, it might be the last big tournament that Swedish football fans can enjoy for a very long time.
It might sound a bit dramatic, considering that the Swedish U-21 team won the European Championships only a couple of months ago. But their strength wasn’t raw individual talent; it was more down to a very well oiled machine that had played together for a very long time. Of course, there are some talented players in the squad who won Swedens first U21 title ever, and expect to see names as Augustinsson, Milosevic, Lewicki & Guidetti in the first team for many years beyond. But none of them will go on to be a world-class player and only four of the players in the U21-squad made it to the national team for the games against Russia & Austria. And of those four, only one seems to have a decent chance of starting the game with Russia. (Alexander Milosevic)
Manager, Erik Hamrén, will most likely make his last tournament as a national coach if Sweden makes it to France 2016. Hamréns results have been OK, but no more. His contract expires in July 2016 and unless Sweden would go on to make it to the quarterfinals in France, Hamrén’s time as national coach will most likely come to an end in 2016. Zlatan Ibrahimovic has hinted that the European Championships will be his last for Sweden, and you can’t say enough about how much he has meant, and still means, to Swedish football. He is without a doubt the most important player and the one who Hamrén builds his team around. When Zlatan is gone, no one can fill the space he will leave on and off the field. When Sweden tries to qualify for the 2018 World Cup, they will do it without “Ibra” and they will have to do it against teams like France & Netherlands – so I don’t think I’m being overdramatic when I say that the Euro 2016 might be the last big tournament Sweden will experience for a long time.
Formation & playing style:
Hamrén came in to the national team with an ambition of playing “entertaining football” and “getting rid of the typical 4-4-2 formation” but after the humiliating loss away to Netherlands in 2011, he quickly switched back to a classic Swedish style which includes 4-4-2 and hard work. The offence is depending on some magic from Ibrahimovic and there aren’t any clear lines in how Sweden attacks. It is more a case of “give the ball to Ibra and see what he can do with it”. Hamrén have been unable to find a partner for Ibrahimovic up front, but it seems now that he will go with Marcus Berg who has started the season very well in Panathinaikos but also scored in the last qualification game against Montenegro. Bergs instructions are pretty much “do not occupy the space that Ibrahimovic wants, just stand inside the box and wait for the ball to come to you”. But while he is a limited player, Berg is a good finisher and has scored plenty of goals in Sweden, Holland and in Greece during his career.
While Ibrahimovic of course is the most important offensive player, there are a couple more that could create lots of problems for Russia if they have a good day. Erkan Zengin and Jimmy Durmaz are both capable of beating their opponent 1 on 1 and can score from distance and from close range. Sweden will most likely play on the break in Moscow, something that should suit both Zengin & Durmaz.
But Russia shouldn’t pay that much attention to other players than Zlatan Ibrahimovic. This is his team and unless he has a good day, Sweden doesn’t have a chance at winning. While players like Ekdal, Zengin & Durmaz might have developed a bit in recent years they are not players who win games on their own and just like the Russian team, Sweden’s team is very average but the difference from Russia is that they have Zlatan – and Russia don’t.
Team news
Erik Hamrén will be able to pick his strongest team for the fixture against Russia. The only absence is right back Mikael Lustig but he probably wouldn’t have made it to the starting-XI anyway.
From the U21 team, Hamrén has selected Isaac Kiese Thelin, Oscar Lewicki, Alexander Milosevic and Abdul Khalili. But as I mentioned earlier, only Milosevic has a realistic chance of starting the game with Russia.
The centre back pair has been a disaster waiting to happen ever since Hamrén took charge. He has tried many different combinations, only to change them to the next game. In the last qualification game against Montenegro, Hamrén started Erik Johansson & Alexander Milosevic, but one of them are now expected to make room for Andreas Granqvist.
Sweden are without suspended Kim Källström which probably means that Pontus Wernbloom will get the chance in one of the two central midfield roles. Wernbloom has often found himself on the bench under manager Hamrén, but without Källström and retired Anders Svensson, there aren’t many more defensive options for Hamrén. He could of course go with Oscar Lewicki who has a lot of potential, but Wernbloom is a better player and his knowledge of Russian football would make him a big asset is this game.
Probable line-up
Isaksson – Bengtsson, Milosevic, Granqvist, Olsson – Zengin, Ekdal, Wernbloom, Durmaz – Ibrahimovic, Berg
Match prediction
A draw would be a good result for Sweden since they would stay four points ahead of Russia and actually could afford to lose the game against Austria and still have everything in their own hands. I predict a very defensive Swedish team who will try to hang on to a clean sheet for as long as possible. As mentioned above, these two teams are very even but the big difference from the first game in Stockholm is that Sweden now has Ibrahimovic available again and I wouldn’t be surprised at all if he, once again, makes the difference. With all the troubles surrounding the Russian team, I would say that Sweden has a good chance of winning this game but wouldn’t be surprised if they settled for a draw.
Follow Johan on Twitter: @Jni84
Author: Ben Clark
Londoner and Chelsea fan. Follower of Russian football since 2011 and I haven’t got my life back since.
Leave a Reply