On paper, Group B is one of the easier at the Euros. Matched against England, Wales and Slovakia, Russia are expected to advance from the group alongside the Three Lions from England.
However, this is far from the first time Sbornaya has been expected to advance from their group in an international tournament, and with the exception of the magic summer in 2008, the Russian national team has always fallen short of expectations and been eliminated in the group stage. Therefore, despite Russia being ranked 10/3 to win the group, Sbornaya could struggle in what seems like a very even group.
The sad trend started in 1994, the first time Russia ever took part in an international tournament after the collapse of the Soviet Union, when Russia finished third in their World Cup group after Brazil and Sweden, despite beating Cameroon 6-1 in a legendary match where Oleg Salenko scored five goals.
Since then, Russia have left Euro 1996, 2002 World Cup, Euro 2004, Euro 2012 and 2014 World Cup after the group stage, and although the enlargement of this summer’s Euros means that more teams than ever advance to the knockout stages, Russia could once again find themselves falling short of expectations.
After Leonid Slutsky replaced Fabio Capello as Russian national team coach last summer, Sbornaya went to win their last four qualification matches to finish second in their qualification group behind Austria. However, with the exception of the 7-0 demolition of minnows Liechtenstein, none of Russia’s victories were that impressive, so Slutsky’s good start came with a comfortable background.
Since Russia qualified for the Euros, they have played six friendlies, winning just two, losing three and drawing against Serbia last weekend. Of course, it is dangerous to read too much into these results, but the fact remains that the Russian team haven’t played very well.
Slutsky has tried many players and formations in these friendlies, but without much luck, and going into the premier game against England, it seems that he will have to trust his usual suspects, with the exception of the injured Alan Dzagoev and Igor Denisov, in his almost classic 4-2-3-1 line-up.
The latest friendlies against Czech Republic and Serbia saw Russia experiment with three strikers, using Fedor Smolov and Aleksandr Kokorin as inside forwards behind target-man Artem Dzyuba, but they struggled to create chances despite the options up front. Part of the reason for this was most likely the absence of playmaker Roman Shirokov, who only played the last 15 minutes of the final game against Serbia, in which he was the mastermind behind Dzyuba’s opening goal.
The absence of the aforementioned Dzagoev and Denisov is also bad news for Russia. While Dzagoev is utilised as sort of a mix between a box-to-box midfielder and a deep-lying playmaker, Denisov works as the garbage man on the defensive midfield, cleaning up defensively.
Denisov was replaced by Zenit’s Artur Yusupov, an average midfielder from the RFPL whose biggest strength is his Russian passport, and with the exception of Roman Neustädter, who has only played 26 minutes for Sbornaya, there are no obvious defensive midfielders in the squad.
Dzagoev is slightly easier to replace, with Denis Glushakov being the obvious choice, although he is a bit more defensive minded than the CSKA midfielder. Another more offensive option is FC Krasnodar’s Pavel Mamaev, but he has proven best when his defensive responsibilities are limited. Unfortunately for Sbornaya, Glushakov has been suffering with a minor injury, but he should be ready in time for the England game according to the Russian team doctor Eduard Bezuglov.
There are of course also reasons to be optimistic on behalf of Slutsky’s troops. The defensive unit with Sergey Ignashevich, Vasili Berezutskiy and Igor Akinfeev has played together for years, and further up the field players like Dzyuba and Smolov both come off the back of good seasons with plenty of goals, both domestically and in European football.
It is furthermore worth noticing that the Russian team is significantly more experienced in European football than the opponents from Wales and Slovakia are, and that England have an almost tragicomic tendency to fall on the finish line at major tournaments.
If the trend is broken:
If Russia win the group they will meet a third-placed team from Group A, C or D. If they finish second in the group, they will meet the runner-up from Group F, which, if we assume Portugal wins the group, will be either Iceland, Austria or Hungary. Russia lost twice to Austria in the qualification stage, but should be able to beat all of the teams, which means they can advance to the quarterfinals, where France are likely to await them.
Captain Roman Shirokov has stated that reaching the quarterfinal is the goal of the team, and with the likely match-ups in mind, that seems to be the realistic loft for Sbornaya.
For that to happen, they do however have to face and overcome some big challenges first.
Leave a Reply