Once again, RFN gives you betting advice for the RFPL. As usual, our experts are given €20 to place on three different bets this round.
Stefano Conforti (@ConfortiStefano):
Bet One: €5 Rubin Kazan — Anzhi: Over 2.5 goals @2.40 at Bet365
Rubin and Anzhi have set up two of the most interesting projects in Eastern Europe this summer. Despite a not so great start to the season, Rubin remains one of the main candidates for an European spot, and the draw against Spartak last week can only help Javi Gracia and his team to gain confidence for the upcoming fixtures. Anzhi defeated Arsenal Tula last week, but haven’t convinced yet. Pavel Vrba has much work to do to bring Makhachkala back to the top of Russian football and he has only just begun.
I think the Tsentralniy Stadium will help the home side to ensure the first victory of the season. I also predict that at least three goals will be scored, with Ukrainian striker Marko Devic that seems in a good form.
Bet Two: €10 Amkar – Ural: Both teams to score @2.20 at Bet365
Both Ural and Amkar have had solid starts to the season. With respectively 4 and 5 points, the Ural derby looks like anything but a boring match. On one hand, the Perm club has already earned a very important point in Kazan and also managed to defeat Anzhi so far. On the other hand, Ural provided an excellent performance against current title holders CSKA last week, ruined only by a late goal of Bulgarian winger Milanov.
Gadzhiev and Skripchenko are two big tacticians, hence I think that their offensive plans will work with both teams to score at the Zvezda Stadium.
Bet Three: €5 Zenit – CSKA: 2-1 correct score @9.00 at Bet365
El Clasikov. The match is this weekend’s gift to all fans of Russian football, and it is an unmissable game between two of the most winning clubs in the country over the last years.
CSKA have lost several good players during the summer transfer window with the likes of Roman Shirokov and Ahmed Musa, and that’s why I think the home side is the favorite to win.
Zenit have also been forced to sell Hulk, but Lucescu seems to have found a good balance for the team with the arrivals of Giuliano and Robert Mak.
I’d go for a 2-1. That’s a very common result in Russian football and I don’t think CSKA can avoid a defeat in Saint Petersburg after three awful games against Anzhi, Orenburg and Ural.
Andrew Flint (@AndrewMijFlint):
Bet One: €5 Rubin - Anzhi: draw HT, Rubin win FT @4.00 at bet365
The grand Rubin Revolution has failed to take shape yet after a stumbling start for Javi Gracia and co., with the well-backed Kazan outfit claiming just two points from their opening three matches. There are extenuating circumstances; Alex Song has only just made his debut, Maxim Lestienne has reportedly been given leave for personal reasons before playing, and Maxim Kannunikov’s sending off in week didn’t help a frustrating goalless draw against Amkar. Then again, all teams have had similar problems in the lower again and middle regions of the Premier League table, so the excuses will soon wear thin.
Gracia has admitted to playing players out of position for specific defensive duties, so clearly he has a cautious element to his style, which is why I see the first half being a low-key exercise in containment. Anzhi have moved swiftly to replace Cala, whose loan was cancelled after his brother fell seriously ill, by srengthening their defence again with the signing of Xandao, so will be reasonably hard to break down. After the break, however, the quality of Rubin and the depth of their squad will surely tell, so the odds of 4.00 represent great value.
Bet Two: €5 Rostov - Tom: Under 1.5 goals @2.38 at bet365
Rostov are once again in the middle of financial turmoil with a transfer ban in place, which means they will not be able to replace their star defender Bastos after he Angola left for Lazio this week. So far, it looks like Dmitry Kirichenko will continue the conservative five-man defence that Kurban Berdeyev employed, and after a long journey back from the Netherlands following their hugely promising 1-1 draw in the Champions League playoff first leg they will be anxious not to risk any injuries ahead of the critical second leg on Wednesday.
Tom will be happy with their recovery from being hammered 3-0 away to Krasnodar in the opening weekend, and there has even been talk of Pavel Pogrebnyak returning to reunite with his brother Kirill at his former club. They showed great resilience to come back to draw away at unbeaten Lokomotiv a fortnight ago in their last away match, but the ruthlessness of Rostov will be just too much. Either way, this is destined to be a low-scoring match, so this represents a solid bet.
Bet Three: €10 Spartak - Krasnodar: Over 2.5 total goals & Krasnodar win @6.40 at bet365
Arguably the two most explosive goalscoring talents go head to head in this clash: Quincy Promes and the electric Fyodor Smolov. Since the start of last season, the pair have scored an astonishing 45 goals combined in 33 matches including seven in the three games so far this season; it would be a major shock if neither of them registered a goal in this one.
While the rest of the league has been reserved in front of goal averaging under 1.5 goals per match, Spartak and Krasnodar have seen 16 goals in their combined six matches, giving an average of 2.5. What I think will give this match the edge to above that figure is the fact that Massimo Carrera, despite being famous for a very tactical, defensive approach, will sense an opportunity to attack with Krasnodar’s Europa League exploits on Thursday leaving them less time to prepare for this trip to the capital. Stopping Smolov at the moment, however, is like Lokomotiv fans trying to like Olga Smorodskaya - it just isn’t going to happen, and I see the southerners taking all three points.
Jack Beresford (@JackBeresford86):
Bet One: €5 Lokomotiv Moscow – Krylia Sovetov: 1-0 Correct Score @5.50 at Bet365
Lokomotiv may be carving out a niche as the Russian Premier League’s draw specialists this term but they should be backed to end that duck, just about, when Krylia Sovetov come calling.
The Moscow side has averaged exactly a goal a game while Krylya have conceded exactly the same number over the course of the season’s first three fixtures, including back-to-back 1-0 defeats away from for the Perya.
With two of Lokomotiv’s last three wins against the Samara side coming by a single goal margin, a 1-0 victory looks a tempting outside bet.
Bet Two: €10 Spartak Moscow - Krasnodar: Krasnodar to win @3.20 at Bet365
These two teams may sit level on seven points but its Krasnodar that have made the more settled start, with Oleg Kononov’s side likely to be on a high after all-but sealing progress to the group phase of the Europa League with a superb 4-0 mauling of Partizani Tirana.
Keen to build on an impressive start to the campaign they travel to face Spartak side they beat 2-1 in a friendly played in Moscow back in February.
Fyodor Smolov has scored five goals in three games and will be gunning for more against a Spartak side welcoming a new and inexperienced manager in Massimo Carrera to the dugout.
More importantly, Spartak’s defence has leaked goals in three of its five games against lesser opposition. Lump on the visitors.
Bet Three: €5 Arsenal Tula – Orenburg: Orenburg (-1) to win @ 6.50 at Bet365
Okay, this might sound like a bit of a stretch, but it’s definitely worth a small punt, given the history between these two sides last season.
Orenburg finished last season top of the Russian National Football League, four points clear of opponents Arsenal Tula, with their championship crown secured thanks, in no small part, to victories home and away against their fellow promoted side.
These were not narrow, hard fought victories either. Orenburg won 4-1 at home and 3-0 away against Arsenal Tula with midfielder Marat Shogenov scored in both games, so there is every chance of them securing a victory, by two goals or more, against the Samovars.
After a creditable draw with Amkar Perm’, this represents a fantastic opportunity for the away side to claim a first win of the season.
RFN Total: +€135.39
Vincent Tanguy: +€144.35 (hit rate: 5/12 – 41.66%)
Ben Clark: +€105.5 (hit rate: 10/21 – 47.61%)
David Sansun: +€76.4 (hit rate: 7/27 – 25 %)
Thomas Giles: +€69.2 (hit rate 14/24 – 59.33 %)
Jack Beresford: +€30 (hit rate 1/3 – 33.33 %)
Toke Theilade: +€11.89 (hit rate: 6/12 – 50 %)
Danny Armstrong: -€8 (hit rate: 2/6 – 33.33 %)
Stefano Conforti: -€16 (hit rate: 1/3 – 33.33 %)
Andrew Flint: -€60 (hit rate: 5/27 – 18.51 %)
Ilya Sokolov: -€99,6 (hit rate: 5/25 – 20.00%)
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