Russian teams always seem to do well in Europe. Over the years, the Russian coefficient has risen nicely, and in August this year, Russia overtook Portugal in the UEFA rankings for club competitions, making it the sixth strongest in Europe. Even though Russia only have four teams in the group stages of the Champions League and the Europa League, compared to five last season, all four of them look ready to compete on an international level. I will go through the chance of success for the various Russian outfits this season.
UEFA Champions League: FC Rostov and CSKA Moscow
Group E:
CSKA Moscow
Bayer Leverkusen
Tottenham
Monaco
As usual, CSKA find themselves in a very tough group. This time however, it is also a very evenly-matched group as there are no major favourites this time. Therefore, I wouldn’t be surprised to see CSKA slip through to the knockout rounds. But with that said they are the weakest team on paper, and their domestic start to the season doesn’t fill me with confidence that they can shove teams like Tottenham and Leverkusen under them in the final standings.
CSKA’s biggest issue is their weak attack. They have problems scoring against bottom-ranked Russian League teams right now, and even though their defence is good enough to withstand the average Russian teams, it won’t be able to withstand good European opposition, which we have seen on numerous occasions in their last couple of campaigns. On the plus side CSKA have by far the most European experience in this group. Leverkusen are becoming Champions League regulars, while Monaco are only visiting the group stages for the second time in over ten years. Tottenham are the team with the least experience. It has been five years since their latest visit to the Champions League group stages.
Another major plus is that the new CSKA Arena is finally ready to host some football, and CSKA can look forward to a packed stadium for each of these group stage matches.
In the end however, I have very little trust in that CSKA can advance from this group. A third place finish, and access into the Europa League knockout round seems like the best-case scenario for the Army Men, and something the fans should be satisfied with.
My prediction: 4th
Potential further on: Knocked out in the group
Group D:
Bayern Munich
Atlético Madrid
PSV
FC Rostov
Rostov already deserve a seal of approval for their results in this seasons Champions League. First Anderlecht were knocked out in the third qualification round, and in the play-offs, Ajax suffered the same fate after a soul crushing 4-1 defeat in Rostov in the second leg.
Now, Rostov face a task close to impossible if they want to progress to the knockout round. European giants Bayern Munich and Atlético Madrid look guaranteed to progress to the next round, leaving Rostov and PSV to battle for third. Even if Rostov pull out some miracles in the group, I don’t see them finishing above any of the two heavyweights. But I do however see them finishing above Dutch champions PSV.
Rostov’s weakness is undoubtedly the transfer market they have just come out of. Head coach Kurban Berdyev has left (for now), and so have two vital defenders in Novoseltsev and Bastos who have left for bigger clubs and challenges. Although Vladimir Granat, Papa Gueye and Miha Mevlja were brought in on deadline day, it will take time for them to adapt.
Rostov’s strengths are their strict discipline, and that they are experts specifically in the tactic they exercise. Luckily, none of their important attacking players have been forced to leave. Players like Azmoun, Poloz, Erokhin and midfielder Noboa are all still in the club. The base from last season is pretty much the same although they have been hurt in their depth.
The two games against PSV will decide whether or not Rostov get to play European football after December. I can imagine Rostov grabbing a point at home against Atlético, but not against Bayern. The two away games in Munich and Madrid will give zero points. Against PSV, Rostov have to win at home. That will put all the pressure on PSV before the reverse game on matchday six. And we all know Rostov love having to defend while being the underdog.
My prediction: 3rd
Potential further on: Round of 16 (UEL)
UEFA Europa League: Zenit St. Petersburg and FC Krasnodar
Group D
Zenit
AZ Alkmaar
Maccabi Tel-Aviv
Dundalk FC
Zenit’s group should be a walk in the park. The Blue-White-Sky Blues have come weakened out of the summer transfer window after losing Hulk and Ezequiel Garay, and potentially keeping a unmotivated Axel Witsel after the club blew his deadline day move to Juventus. However, Zenit’s acquisitions look promising, and they have not reached their peak yet. Giuliano is for me the most exciting. He has started absolutely phenomenally, and has already proven himself instrumental for the St. Petersburg outfit. On deadline day Ivan Novoseltsev was brought in from Rostov, a promising central defender that with his Russian passport opens up a foreign sport further up the field, which should benefit Slovak international Robert Mak, who has struggled to get playing time since joining Mircea Lucescu’s side.
Zenit should end up with maximum points in this group. The only tricky fixtures are the away games against Maccabi Tel-Aviv in match day one, and the away game on matchday six against AZ, where Zenit potentially could rest their squad if they already have booked their tickets to the play-offs.
Dundalk looks like a team that could be crushed in this group. A tough domestic fixture-list combined with European matches against top professional European teams, home and away should prove too much to handle, and anything but six points against the Irishmen will be a huge disappointment for Zenit.
For Zenit, the real task in this season’s Europa League will first show it’s face after the group stages. Until then, it will be a walk in the park.
My prediction: 1st
Potential further on: Semi-Final
Group I:
Schalke 04
Red Bull Salzburg
FC Krasnodar
OGC Nice
Krasnodar are becoming a team with plenty of European pedigree. Last season, they finished above Dortmund in the group stage, but because of a slow start after the winter break, Sparta Prague knocked them out in the Round of 32. A good group campaign that turned into a disappointment - similar to what we saw with Zenit.
This season however, Krasnodar are going in with even more experience in the bank, and an almost identical squad. Central defenders Ragnar Sigurdsson and Stefan Strandberg have left for Fulham and Hannover 96 respectively, but Naldo from Sporting CP has been brought in as a replacement. The rest of the squad has barely been touched. Krasnodar have not been in the best of form recently, but have been consistent in their results over the last couple of years, and should be ready for Europe which they always seem to be more motivated for.
Their opponents are Schalke 04, with lots of experience and quality, Red Bull Salzburg, who once again failed to qualify for the Champions League, and newcomers OGC Nice, who just signed Mario Balotelli.
It is fair to say that Schalke are favourites. Not as big as Dortmund last season, but they are favourites. After them I rank Krasnodar second best. Their squad is better than both Salzburg and Nice, and their free-flowing attacking football has proven effective in Europe, especially at home.
Krasnodar will play two of their three home games in this seasons campaign at their new Krasnodar Stadium. The first official fixture for Krasnodar at the new stadium will be against Schalke on October the 20th.
My prediction: 1st/2nd
Potential further on: Quarter-Final
Summary
Zenit are Russia’s best shot at success this season. Not only do they have an easy group, they also have lots of experience. And even though Garay and Hulk have left, they are also in possession of the best squad of all the Russian teams. A semi-final should be realistic. They are one of the pre-tournament favorites to clinch the title, and depending on the draw, a final is not too unthinkable if Lucescu’s men gain momentum. Last year he guided a significantly weaker Shakhtar squad to the semi-finals. But then again it depends on what teams will come over from the Champions League.
Krasnodar are my second shot for Russian glory. It is finally time for them to prove themselves in Europe, and even though their group is a bit tough, they should advance if they have any ambition of making it to the further stages of the tournament. I believe and expect a quarter-final end to their European campaign this season.
Rostov I believe will make it to the Europa League Round of 32 via a third place finish in their Champions League group. Some very lucky draws, and they could make it to the quarter-finals. But realistically, I only think they can take it one round further than the Round of 32 to the last 16.
CSKA would be able to do some damage in the Europa League, but unfortunately I don’t think they will make it out of their Champions League group. If they clinch 3rd, I could see them getting to the quarter-finals, or even further, depending on the draw.
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