RFPL Week 24: Betting Advice

Andrew Flint (@AndrewMijFlint):

Bet One: €10 Mordovia - Amkar: Draw & Under 2.5 total goals @3.50 at Bet365

Neither of these two are what you would call expansive teams. Mordovia have the lowest number of wins in the league with just two, and although among Russian players Evgeniy Lutsenko has only been outscored by Fyodor Smolov and Artyom Dzyuba, their next highest scorer is a full back who can’t make the side with just three. Only Kuban and Terek have drawn more matches in the top flight this season, and after Andrey Gordeev’s murky departure the direction of the club - who failed to make a single signing in he winter - has been all over the place.

Meanwhile Amkar have scored the fewest away from home and are managed by the notoriously defensive Gadzhi Gadzhiev, who would value a point very highly as he edges towards another survival. Defensive linchpin Fegor Ogude returns to the side to add some steel to the midfield which has provided over half of their goals. They have only scored twice in the last four matches; in fact they have only scored more than one goal in any league game once since September. With a Russian Cup semi final at home to Zenit next week, Gadzhiev will be anxious to avoid any injuries and is highly unlikely to go all out attack.

Bet Two: €5 Dinamo Moscow - Krylia: Draw Half Time, Dinamo Full Time @5.00 at Bet365

The winner of his match will be as good as safe from dropping into the deaded bottom four and a possible relegation playoff, so there is a huge amount riding on the result of this game. Dinamo have been chastened by their consecutive 4-1 defeats and Andrey Kobelev has a real job on his hands to lift his players’ collective heads, and with only four points separating them from the drop zone there is little margin for error. A tight first half is likely, especially as Krylia have as much to lose as Dinamo, resting just one point below their hosts in the table.

Krylia’s seemingly endless run of remarkable failure in front of goal finally came to an end two weeks ago, so there is a chance their confidence is returning just in time. Frank Vercauteren is far too smart to allow his players to slack off though, and will be keen to return from the capital with something to show for it. His five-man defence kept their seventh clean sheet of the season last week, but his forwards haven’t shaken off the shackles of poor form completely, with just three goals between them since August, so I don’t see them adding to that tally this week.

Bet Three: €5 Ural - Rubin: Ural to win, both teams to score @6.00 at Bet365

Ural’s disastrous 6-0 drubbing at the hands of Fyodor Smolov - who saved them from from relegation last season with his crucial form in front of goal - ended whatever faint hopes they may have harboured on sneaking into the European qualification places. A win would have put them level on points with Spartak and Krasnodar and five points behind Lokomotiv, but as it is they remain rooted to the bottom of the top half of the table; well clear of the drop, but no hope of anything meaningful. Their defence is their major achilles heel having conceded more than anyone bar Anzhi, and Rubin’s in-form Marko Devic will fancy his chances of adding to his tally at the ground that has seen more goals than any other.

Rubin boast an unwanted record of their own, however, with more defeats - eight - on the road than anyone else. That number is inflated by their poor early season form that was affected by the packed schedule which included a fruitless Europa League campaign, but with an average of less than a goal a game over the season away and three consecutive losses, they shouldn’t underestimate the task of overcoming Ural on their own turf.

Danny Armstrong (@DannyWArmstrong):

Bet One: €5 Zenit - Spartak: HT/FT - Draw/Zenit @4.33 at Bet365

Saturday’s evening match at Petrovsky sees two of the leagues most attacking sides go head to head. In what everyone expects to be a game of relentless forward play, both may find temselves cancelling each other out in the game’s opening stanza, or even mirroring their rival’s efforts. I’ve gone for a high scoring game but fancy Zenit to nick three points on home turf.

Bet Two: €10 Lokomotiv - CSKA: Both teams to score @1.95 at Bet365

Vincent Tanguy: +€120 (hit rate: 1/4 - 25 %)

David Sansun: +€109.15 (hit rate: 5/18 – 27.77 %)

Ben Clark: +€92 (hit rate: 8/15 – 53.33%)

Thomas Giles: +€54.85 (hit rate 9/15 – 60 %)

Toke Theilade: +€11.89 (hit rate: 6/12 – 50 %)

Andrew Flint: -€25 (hit rate: 4/18 – 22.22 %)

Danny Armstrong: -€8 (hit rate: 2/6 – 33,33 %)

Shane Burns: -€39.55 (hit rate: 2/8 – 25 %)

Ilya Sokolov: -€39,6 (hit rate: 5/17 – 29,4%)