Manuel (@homosovieticus) - PhD Student with focus on Soviet history and football, as well as blogger at Futbolgrad.com (@futbolgradlive)
Andy (@AndyShenk) - Moscow based writer and Russian language translator, Andy supports Anzhi
Rob (@RobDillonMTA) - Journalist who specializes in Russian football, Editor of More Than Arshavin
John (@JohnSager) - Russian Football follower, Zenit supporter, California resident
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1) What went wrong for Russia in the Northern Ireland game?
MANUEL: What a mess, this should have been such an easy victory for Russia. Instead of securing a big lead over Portugal Russia once again could miss a World Cup. On paper this team should have easily beaten Northern Ireland. Instead we once again witnessed the typical Russian phlegm of complacency. The Russian players looked like they were given a dose of sleeping pills before the match. There is no excuse for that performance especially since the majority of Russian players are no longer in preparation mode for the current season.
ANDY: Watching Russia play Northern Ireland reminded me a lot of Anzhi matches from the past 12 months. Despite plenty of possession, the team hardly created anything in the box. I’m not smart enough to know how you break down a defense like Northern Ireland’s on Wednesday night, but Russia was lacking both creative combinations, speed and an individual moment of excellence. Overall, Russia didn’t show me anything different from recent matches vs Portugal, Brazil, or Azerbaijan. This is not a dominant squad. They’re pretty reliable on defense, but don’t have enough oomph up front to score all that much. Outside of the 4-0 romp over Israel, Russia has scored just 4 goals in the other 5 qualifiers.
ROB: Two things. The first a complete lack of creation, even with Dzagoev back in the side. Lots of workers, little magic, and against a side that defend as resolutely as NI that causes trouble. Secondly, the ‘only Northern Ireland’ complex. Capello bred complacency in his own squad, which not only got the hosts’ backs up but also led to a sloppiness in his own side. Windsor Park backed their team well, and Russia didn’t even manage to outplay them, which you would expect to happen. Greater professionalism and a bit more flair are needed.
JOHN: Russia has shown improved defensive capabilities with Capello’s management, but the attack is not there considering the level of players that are on the team. Perhaps a shakeup tactically or with a lineup is needed. When Russia has time ball, they did not do anything with it. Capello was forced to make early changes to create a spark that never got going. Then with Cheryshev’s injury, there were no more substitutions to make. All together too complacent when a professional performance could have put the team near to the World Cup. Russia does not want a dangerous playoff.
Credit to Northern Ireland, however. With little to play for besides pride, they scored an amazing goal and could have put away a second. Russia looked like they were never going to tie, let alone win.
2) Is there any more clarification for the Russian forward position? Who should play Forward in the next game?
MANUEL: I would start Dzyuba instead of Kerzhakov. Kerzhakov has been disappointment for a while. For a top striker he simply needs to many chances to score. Dzyuba had a great run so far in the Russian Premier League and if he keeps up the scoring he should also be a starter for the national team.
ANDY: I think Dzyuba should get the starting job. He looks so hungry out on the pitch, both for Rostov and vs N. Ireland, that I think he will be more active and aggressive than Kerzhakov. Linked up with guys like Dzagoev, Cheryshev, Kokorin and Shirokov, there are a lot of positives moving forward for Russia on offense.
ROB: Against Luxembourg it really shouldn’t matter, but for Israel it really depends on what sort of form Kerzhakov and Dzyuba are in. The obvious solution would be to put Kokorin in, but he’s not really a lone striker and with the club situation and his lack of game time it’s a tough call to justify. Personally, although in the past he’s been fairly one-dimensional, if Dzyuba keeps up his early season form I’d give him the nod - on a good day he can cause a lot of problems, and he seems to be having a lot of good days right now.
JOHN: Wow Rostov barely avoided relegation and now we will be calling for Dzyuba to be the National Team striker. I’m not ready to give up on Kerzhakov, but he needs to perform better. And Capello needs to make prospective before changes are needed- make the right call before having to use halftime substitutions.
3) What changes would you make to the lineup going forward? (Not considering suspensions + minor injuries)
MANUEL: As stated above I would give Dzyuba the start. It will be interesting to see how Kokorin will re-adapt to life at Dinamo Moscow. Ideally he will return to full strength and should really be a starter for the Russian national team as well.
ANDY: As I mentioned, Dzyuba starts at forward. I’d like to see Glushakov in for Fayzulin in center midfield, with Kokorin and Dzagoev covering the wings (left and right, respectively). Kokorin and Dzagoev are the future for the Russian national team and Capello needs to figure out a way to get them on the field at the same time once Aleksandr’s healthy.
ROB: Start thinking about the back line beyond Ignashevich and the Berezutskis - they won’t last forever. Chicherin and Granat at Dinamo look promising, and Luxembourg are the kind of opponents you can afford to blood a few new players against. I’d be keen to get Cheryshev involved more in midfield as he’s one of the locks for the next few years if he keeps developing, possibly ahead of Faizulin for a bit more width. Then there’s the eternal striker debate - Kokorin, Smolov, Pnayukov… All young and raw, they’ll continue to wait.
JOHN: Could bringing back Arshavin hurt? That said, I would make other changes with the current squad. I would go attacking and fluid. Maybe remove Denisov. An attacking 4-2-3-1 with a mix of the young players with Bystrov and Shirokov. Fayzulin is a coach’s favorite, but the goals are not being scored. I highly doubt Capello ditches his Italian mentality to put out an attacking lineup with only one holding midfielder.
4) What does this game mean for qualifying for the World Cup in Brazil? Will Russia qualify and in which spots from the group?
MANUEL: Russia was in a perfect position to qualify for the World Cup. Now they are two points behind Portugal with one game in hand. Normally I would say that Russia should easily qualify given the fact that they are facing Luxembourg twice as well as Israel at home in St. Petersburg. However, this is Russia and the national team has shown before that is very capable of poor performances against small nations.
ANDY: I really don’t think it means much. Either way, Russia didn’t want to drop points in its final four matches. They need to be able to beat Israel and Luxembourg home and Azerbaijan and Luxembourg away. Provided they do that, and I think they will, Russia will finish qualifying in first place and advance directly to Brazil.
ROB: Portugal have two home games, one against Luxembourg, which you’d expect them to win, and a trip to Belfast which, as we’ve just seen, could end in a nasty shock. However, you have to assume they’ll win out from that position, so Russia have to do the same. Can they do it? Two games against the minnows are a given, and you would pencil in a home win against Israel after what they did in the away game. That leaves a trip to Baku, which again you would anticipate a win if it weren’t for it being Azerbaijan and that horrendous fixture in Moscow that took a penalty to win. Providing Capello can find a bit more invention in the side that’s three points, and a clear road to Brazil. After Northern Ireland however, you wonder whether it’ll be that simple.
JOHN: Russia missed a chance to go top of the group- with a game in hand. The cushion for a mistake was lost today. Four games to go and now to chance for another slip up. Russia gets Luxembourg and Israel at home in September in what have become must win games. These are obviously winnable, but then Russia must travel to Luxembourg and Azerbaijan for the remaining two games. The pressure will be on. Portugal travels to Northern Ireland and faces Israel, and if Portugal drew it would be a boost to Russia. But Russia cannot count on that. The back to back losses have set Russia back from what seemed surely like automatic qualification to now having a battle to avoid the playoff.
5) What do the changes at Anzhi mean for the Russian National team in the immediate future? And also long term?
MANUEL: Instead of Anzhi Dinamo Moscow will now provide a big block of Russian players for the national team. The switch of Kokorin, Zhirkov and Denisov to Dinamo was in rumoured for a while now and officially confirmed today (although a source close to the players agency confirmed the transfer to me last week).
It will be interesting to see how Kokorin will adapt to the situation of having to return to his former club. But in general I see no major effects since none of the players really have to move. Anzhi used Moscow as a training base and players don’t have to go through the process of finding new homes etc. Instead the transition will go seamless.
It will also be interesting to see how Shatov will do at Zenit. He will now be faced with stiffer competition for playing time, but Zenit’s hopeful participation in the Champions League should be a good next step in his career, and the national team will certainly benefit from this.
ANDY: At this point, the only national team players left at Anzhi are Ionov, Gabulov and Eschenko, with Ionov and Gabulov possibly on the way out. Long term, Anzhi’s proposed shift to developing youth talent is good for Russia. If Dagestan can turn into a football hot-spot, the national team will be reaping the rewards 10-15 years from now. Short term, it won’t have any impact, unless Zhirkov, Denisov and Kokorin’s transition to Dynamo goes poorly and we have another big mess on our hands 3-4 months from now. Shatov’s move to Zenit is confusing, given he’ll have much less playing time there than he would have had he stayed at Anzhi, but Eschenko and Ionov should be regular starters for Anzhi and Kokorin, Zhirkov and Denisov will certainly be in the line-up at Dynamo.
ROB: in the near future anyway - Denisov, Kokorin, Zhirkov, possibly Gabulov too. In the long ruin, it may well wind up being a very interesting situation - Anzhi’s new youth drive creating a bigger pool of Dagestani talent for the national team coming up against a Moscow-led public who don’t want to see too many Caucasian ‘immigrants’ representing their country. In all reality, it’s far too early to tell.
JOHN: I think it can only mean good things for the National Team. As outlined in several articles on the internet recently, Russia’s youth development in shambles. Dedicated focus to developing youth players – especially in a hotbed area for talent like the Caucasus – will pay off. Now in the immediate future, I do not see how Denisov and his antics can ever be good for the National Team. I also think that the prospect of seeing some Dagestani players in the National Team would be a better advancement for the Anzhi project than signing whatever big names Anzhi could get.
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