Manuel (@homosovieticus) - PhD Student with focus on Soviet history and football, as well as blogger at Futbolgrad.com (@futbolgradlive)
Ashraff (@serapdesengal) - Loko supporter and student in Moscow
Andy (@AndyShenk) - Moscow-based writer and Russian language translator, Andy supports Anzhi
Matt (@MattTidcombe) - Sports journalist, Rubin fan and team correspondent
John (@JohnSager) - Russian Football follower, Zenit supporter, California resident
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1) What do you predict the results will be for Russia and do they qualify for the world cup?
MANUEL: Russia will qualify for the World Cup and they will do so finishing first. After all they just have to beat both Luxembourg and Azerbaijan, which seems very manageable. I am, however, aware that Russia is the master of disaster, but I would be surprised (not shocked) if it would happen again this time around. My prediction is an easy 5-0 victory against Luxembourg and a close 2-1 victory against Azerbaijan
ASHRAFF: Six out of six,I hope. I am really scared of the Azerbaijan match, it will be a match that Russia need to rely on the playmaker’s magic. Wise substitution use like Israel’s match is much needed, and hope Kokorin and Kerzhakov can contribute to the scoreline.
Luxembourg 0-2 Russia; Azerbaijan 0-1 Russia
ANDY: I feel strangely confident Russia will cruise against both Luxembourg and Azerbaijan. I think Capello has done a good job of tightening the screws on the team and preparing them mentally. Not having Dzagoev is unfortunate, but with Kerzhakov, Kokorin and Shirokov, Russia should be dynamic enough on offense to win easily. I’ll stick with what I said a few weeks ago - 5-0 vs Luxembourg and 3-0 vs Azerbaijan.
MATT: Russia will win both games as Luxembourg and Azerbaijan are not exactly stellar opponents even though Russia are away from home. By winning both games, that will send Russia into next years World Cup. I’m not very good at predicting game results, but I’ll say Russia beats Luxembourg 3-0 and defeats Azerbaijan 4-0.
JOHN: I think the Russian National Team may have turned a corner under Capello and now have an opportunity against two over-matched teams to make the World Cup. Luxembourg should be a clear-cut win. Any loss will be devastating and Russia won’t be facing full pressure yet. Luxembourg have been playing better, but I think there is no chance Russia lose with these stakes. Luxembourg 0 - 3 Russia.
Azerbaijan in Baku will be a tougher match and I’m sure Azerbaijan will be up to play the spoiler. Russia will have to play strong and smart and can have no defensive breakdowns. After all, one mishap will could (and likely will) cost Russia a spot in the World Cup. There is too much at stake for Russia to perform poorly. Azerbaijan 0 - 2 Russia.
2) If you are Capello, what is your lineup?
MANUEL: Oh beware the armchair manager. I hate those games, yet I always play them. Well here is my lineup!
Igor Akinfeev - Dmitri Kombarov, Vasili Berezutski, Aleksei Berezutski, Sergei Ignashevich - Igor Denisov, Pavel Mamaev - Viktor Fayzulin, Aleksandr Kokorin, Yuri Zhirkov - Aleksandr Kerzhakov.
ASHRAFF: I do think Lodygin should get a chance against Luxembourg, and some first team players should be rested ahead of the big match at Baku.
Lodygin - Smolnikov, Berezutski, Granat, Kombarov - Denisov, Dzagoev, Shirokov, Zhirkov, Kokorin - Kerzhakov
Akinfeev - Kozlov, Ignashevich, Berezutski, Kombarov - Denisov, Fayzulin, Shirokov, Kokorin, Samedov - Kerzhakov
ANDY: I love putting together lineups, even if I have no idea what I’m really talking about.
GK - Igor Akinfeev; CB - Vasili Berezutski and Sergei Ignashevich; LB - Dmitri Kombarov; RB - Aleksei Kozlov; DM - Igor Denisov; CM - Denis Glushakov and Roman Shirokov; AM - Aleksandr Kokorin and Oleg Shatov; CF - Aleksandr Kerzhakov.
4-1-4-1 with Glushakov occasionally coming back to help out Denisov, making it more of a 4-2-3-1. I think Shatov deserves the start for his recent run of form with Zenit and will provide the pace and pure excitement up front, alongside Kokorin, that Russia need to break through early and score goals.
MATT: My lineup is as follows: Akinfeev - Ignashevich, Berezutski, Kozlov, Kombarov - Shirokov, Denisov, Fayzulin, Ryazantsev, Glushakov - Kerzhakov.
It’s a pretty similar lineup to what Capello put out in the last qualifiers, which they both won, so there isn’t any need to drastically change anything.
JOHN: I think a fairy consistent lineup with that which is expected and has been used would be best. I like Fayzulin and Shatov from Zenit playing.
Igor Akinfeev, Dmitri Kombarov, Vasili Berezutski, Sergei Ignashevich, Aleksei Kozlov, Igor Denisov, Viktor Fayzulin, Roman Shirokov, Aleksandr Kokorin, Oleg Shatov, Aleksandr Kerzhakov.
So is Anyukov injured then? I’ve been impressed with Smolnikov at Zenit since he arrived. I think I’d play him on the right. Samedov should also get more playing time - top player. Maybe Smolnikov at right-back and Samedov on the right wing? It seems strange but I think Capello should keep his 1st team fresh and include a few newer faces in both matches to stop Russia being complacent and doing their usual almighty fuck-up. I’d like to see Samedov, Smolnikov, Kozlov, Shatov, Glushakov, Cheryshev (is he injured?), Granat, Kolodin (whatever happened to him? Still at Rostov or is it Krylya Sovetov?). It’s a shame Dzagoev’s not fit really. I think Russia might miss his creativity.
Overall though, it has to be said that if Russia can’t beat Luxembourg and Azerbaijan (although they’ve improved recently) then they don’t deserve to go to the World Cup. In my humble opinion (and years of watching Russia underperform, fluff their lines etc) I can see Russia winning handsomely in Luxembourg and then only getting a draw in Baku to go into the play-offs. Once in the play-offs they’ll win the first leg and then lose the 2nd to miss out completely. Isn’t that the way it goes with Russia? Massive talent, massive psychological issues……….please Russia, don’t mess it up again!
Thanks for commenting.
I agree with some of your suggestions. Although I think Russia’s talent may be overrated in terms of the international level.
And I definitely think that if Russia cannot beat these teams, they don’t deserve to go. These are must wins.
The play-offs are something that need to be avoided. Only disaster can happen there.
Thanks for the comment. Anyukov isn’t injured, Capello just didn’t call him up. Smolnikov could certainly get the start over Kozlov. That position is up in the air right now, so it’ll be interesting to see who he puts there and who will be the first option by next summer.
Cheryshev is injured and Kolodin hasn’t been called up for a while. He’s at Volga now. Center back is also interesting, because Ignashevich is disqualified for Luxembourg and both Berezutski brothers are dealing with some injuries. I’d expect Vasili and Vladimir Granat to be in there.
Russia should invest heavely on youth academies, in order to produce good players soon. The foreigners who play in the league dont make the difference and dont push the russians players in compatiotion. There are some players out of form, specially from my favourite team CSKA, as Akinfeyev, who has conceded some goals in champions league, which even a amatour goalkeeper would save them. Kokorin is a top class player and it’s pity that he does not play with CSKA
Russia have a few good schools, Krasnodar have an amazing football school built a few years ago which houses 3,000 students who train and go to school at the academy daily.
I will also add that the CSKA Football School has being doing tremendously well. In last years nex gen series (Under 19) CSKA made the QF after defeating Chelsea, Ajax and Feyenoord. Losing to Arsenal. This year the Next gen series has been replaced with the Youth Champions League (Under 19). CSKA defeated Bayern Munich away 2-0 and Vijtoria Plzen 5-0. They have basically made it out of the group stage. Zenit on the other hand have been doing poorly in the Youth Champions League with losses to Athletico Madrid and Austria Vienna.
I agree with you both that the youth are where Russia needs to invest. It’s a shame so few clubs spend money there, but I think that’s because club structures in Russia in general are very weak. No one is thinking about the future, but rather securing financing for the next year and keeping their jobs.
A nervy draw tomorrow night, I think - but it will be enough. Capello has instilled more belief in the Russian side, but there are still issues with that side of their game.